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2013-11-08 看历史数据,实现中国梦


  中国落后吗?落后!自从1840英国人的大炮大开了中国的大门,中国就开始了百年的动乱,但是中国是长时间非常强大的国家!看看下面的饿数据:
 

Qin Dynasty 秦朝 221–206 BC  

GDP per capita: Unknow

The share of Qing and the dynasties before are too aged to calculate, no relevant data is available, so we only start from the Han dynasty.


Han dynasty
汉朝 (206 BC–220 AD)  

GDP per capita: $450

Han Dynasty accounted for
26% of the global wealth, at that time the RomanEmpire dominated western world. Han Dynasty is the economic center of the
 eastern world.(占26%世界的GDP)
 

Tang Dynasty 唐朝 618 – 907 AD
GDP per capita:$480

China’s feudal society gets to its peak in Tang Dynasty,
accounting for 58% of world GDP, we will know its rich and powerful comparing with other countries of the same time ,The second Eastern Roman Empire accounted for 9% of world GDP.   The third Arab Empire accounted for 7% of the world’s GDP. The fourth Ancient India accounted for 7% of the world’s GDP. Tang Dynasty can be described as a dominance among many big ancient countries  .
(唐朝占世界58%的GDP)
 

Song Dynasty 宋朝 960-1279 AD

GDP per capita:US$2,280

The  entire Song Dynasty accounted for
80% of the world’s GDP, The share should be the highest among Chinese history due mainly to a booming commerce, foreign trade and technological advancement, making Song the richest dynasty in Chinese history. After a thousand years, Westerners said: “a thousand years ago, China’s  economic aggregate accounted for 80% of the world at that time.” After a thousand years Chinese people said in shock: “how is this possible?” Western historians described its wealth and prosperity like this, living conditions of a porter at the gate of the capital Dongjing city is better than a Western monarch of the same period.  Song is a classic dynasty that hide the wealth into the people
(宋朝占世界80%GDP)
 

Yuan Dynasty 元朝 1271-1368 AD

It is difficult to calculate economic data of Yuan Dynasty, its GDP is estimated to account for about
30% -35% of the world according to the foreign research institutions.

(占世界GDP30%-35%)
 

Ming Dynasty 明朝 1368–1644 AD

GDP per capita:US$600

In the period of Wanli of the Ming Dynasty
, total wealth accounted for 55% of world GDP. The average share was 45% during the whole Ming Dynasty,
 but the late Ming Dynasty rapidly declined for famine and war.

(占世界GDP55%)
 

Qing Dynasty 清朝 1644-1922 AD

GDP per capita:US$600

Qing Dynasty accounted for 35% -10% of the World GDP, the economy experienced big recession after
1840 Opium War, large amounts of silver were used 
 to pay indemnitiess to invaders and outflowed at the same time, causing its GDP rapidly falling from 35% in period of Kangxi and Qianlong to less than 10%
in Jiaqing period.

(占世界GDP从35%降到10%)

 

People’s Republic of China 中华人民共和国 1949-

GDP per capita:US$5414

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China was worth
7298.1 billion US dollars in 2011, according to a report published by the World Bank. The GDP value of China is roughly equivalent to 9.48 percent of the world economy.
(2011年占世界GDP9.48%)

  但是,1840年明显是中国的转折点,由于我们的工业落后,我们的GDP是丝绸和茶业,而英国是军舰和大炮,结果是我们大败。


同时我们看看日本,1868年开始的明治维新。1894年就敢向大清国开战,只用了26年就实现了工业化,至少是军事化,随后1904年又开始了日俄战争,用了36年就确立

了其亚洲的第一大国地位,不得不深思!


就算1945年二战失败后,到了1968年日本又成为世界第二大经济体,只用了23年,但是由于各种原因日本无法成为大国!
因为历史上它也没有成为世界大国!


但是反观美国,由于其天然具有和英国的关系,利用西方的技术,用短短200多年就成为世界第一大国!1861年到1865年的美国独立战争结束是其转折点,可惜那时中国

正在被各国侵略!从1850年到1950年美国发展了100年,而中国正好动乱了100年!






可以看到中国占世界的比例从1840年开始下降!1950年到1980年几乎没有变化,只是1980年后开始上升!



以下是美国1929年到2012年美国GDP和主要事件!

U.S. GDP by Year Since 1929 Compared to Major Events

Year

GDP Growth Rate

Nominal GDP (in billions)

GDP per Capita

Event

1929

NA

$104.6

NA

Hoover became President. His high wage controls combined with the Fed's high interest rates (to defendgold standard) forces more businesses to go bankrupt. Stock market crashed in October.

1930

-8.5%

$92.2

NA

Congress passed Smoot-Hawley Tariffs, restricting global trade. Prices fall 6.4%.

1931

-6.4%

$77.4

NA

Dust Bowl drought begins. Prices fall 9.3%

1932

-12.9%

$59.5

NA

Hoover raised taxes to balance budget, worsening Depression. Prices fall 10.3%.

1933

-1.3%

$57.2

NA

Unemployment hit 25%. Roosevelt became President.New Deal created FDIC, FHA and Social Security. Glass-Steagall passed. Prohibition repealed. Inflation at .8%.

1934

10.8%

$66.8

NA

World trade dropped 66% since 1930. U.S. prices rise 1.5%.

1935

8.9%

$74.3

NA

Social Security enacted. Soil Conservation Act began restoring Dust Bowl. Inflation at 3%.

1936

12.9%

$84.9

NA

Inflation at 1.4%.

1937

5.1%

$93.0

NA

Inflation at 2.9%.

1938

-3.3%

$87.4

NA

Prices fall 2.8%.

1939

8.0%

$93.5

NA

Dust Bowl drought ended.

1940

8.8%

$102.9

NA

Selective Service Act signed. First Social Security checks paid. PA and LA highways open.

1941

17.7%

$129.4

NA

Attack on Pearl Harbor forced US into WWII, ending Depression. Inflation at 9.9%.

1942

18.9%

$166.0

NA

Inflation at 9%.

1943

17.0%

$203.1

NA

Prices rise 3%.

1944

8.0%

$224.6

NA

Bretton-Woods Agreement established U.S. dollar as aglobal currency and launched World Bank and IMF. Inflation rate 2.3%.

1945

-1.0%

$228.2

NA

End of WWII caused 1945 recession. Truman became President.

1946

-11.6%

$227.8

NA

Inflation at 18.1%.

1947

-1.1%

$249.9

NA

Marshall Plan and Truman Doctrine. Cold War began. Inflation at 8.8%.

1948

4.1%

$274.8

NA

Berlin airlift.

1949

-0.5%

$272.8

NA

Recession began. NATO established. Communists took over China. Prices fall 2.1%.

1950

8.7%

$300.2

NA

U.S. entered Korean War.

1951

8.1%

$347.3

NA

Inflation at 6%.

1952

4.1%

$367.7

NA

 

1953

4.7%

$389.7

NA

Eisenhower became President. Korean War ended.

1954

-0.6%

$391.1

NA

The Dow finally got back to its pre-Depression level. Recession began. Fed kept rate around 1%. Prices fall .7%.

1955

7.1%

$426.2

NA

Supreme Court ordered school desegregation. Fed raised rate to 2.48%.

1956

2.1%

$450.1

NA

Inflation at 3%.

1957

2.1%

$474.9

NA

Fed raised rate to 3%.

1958

-0.7%

$482.0

NA

GDP plummeted 10.4% in Q1. Unemployment at 7.1%. Fed lowered rate to .63%.

1959

6.9%

$522.5

NA

Alaska and Hawaii became states. Fed raised rate to 4%.

1960

2.6%

$543.3

$17,747

1960 recession started. GDP fell 4.2% in Q4. Fed lowered rate to 1.98%.

1961

2.6%

$563.3

$17,862

Unemployment hit 6.1%. JFK became President. Bay of Pigs invasion. Berlin Wall erected.

1962

6.1%

$605.1

$18,655

Cuban Missile Crisis.

1963

4.4%

$638.6

$19,192

JFK assassinated. LBJ became President. Fed raised rate to 3.5%.

1964

5.8%

$685.8

$20,023

Fed raised rate to 3.85%.

1965

6.5%

$743.7

$21,044

U.S. entered Vietnam War. Fed raised rate to 4.32%.

1966

6.6%

$815.0

$22,158

Fed raised rate to 5.76% to fight 3.5% inflation.

1967

2.7%

$861.7

$22,472

Inflation at 3%.

1968

4.9%

$942.5

$23,326

Fed raised rate to 6% to fight 4.7% inflation.

1969

3.1%

$1,019.9

$23,816

Nixon became President. ARPANET created. Man landed on the moon. Fed raised rate to 9.19% to fight 6.2% inflation.

1970

0.2%

$1,075.9

$23,585

Recession. GDP plummeted 4.2% in Q4. Nixon bombed Cambodia. Fed lowered rate to 4.9% to fight recession even though inflation was at 5.6%.

1971

3.3%

$1,167.8

$24,071

Unemployment peaked at 6.1%. Fed lowered rate to 3.5%, then raised it to 5%. Inflation at 3.3%.

1972

5.2%

$1,282.4

$25,080

Inflation at 3.4%.

1973

5.6%

$1,428.5

$26,281

OPEC oil embargo. Nixon took dollar off gold standard, tripling inflation to 8.7%. Fed doubled rate to 11%. U.S. withdrew from Vietnam. Nixon resigned over Watergate.

1974

-0.5%

$1,548.8

$25,898

Wage-price controls had created stagflation. Ford became President. Fed raised rate to 13% to fight 12.3% inflation.

1975

-0.2%

$1,688.9

$25,590

GDP fell 4.8% in Q1, unemployment peaked at 9%. Fed lowered rate to 7.5% despite 6.9% inflation.

1976

5.4%

$1,877.6

$26,707

Fed lowered rate to 4.75%. Inflation at 4.9%.

1977

4.6%

$2,086.0

$27,656

Carter became President. Inflation at 6.7%.

1978

5.6%

$2,356.6

$28,891

Fed raised rate to 10% to fight 9% inflation.

1979

3.2%

$2,632.1

$29,467

Fed raised rate to 15.5% to fight 13.3% inflation, then lowered it to 12% confusing price-setters. Iran hostage crisis. Three Mile Island disaster ends further nuclear construction in U.S.

1980

-0.2%

$2,862.5

$29,041

Fed raised rate to 20%. GDP dropped 7.9% in Q2. Fed lowered rate to 10% by August to boost economy, then raised it to 20% to fight 12.5% inflation. Iran oil embargo.

1981

2.6%

$3,210.9

$29,488

Reagan became President. Fed lowered rate to 12%. Inflation at 8.9%.

1982

-1.9%

$3,345.0

$28,638

To combat 1982 recession, the Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act was passed, removing restrictions on loan-to-value ratios for Savings and Loan banks, while budget cuts reduced bank regulatory staff. Fed lowered rate to 8.5% since inflation was a moderate (in those days) 3.8%.

1983

4.6%

$3,638.1

$29,662

Unemployment was 10.8%. Reagan proposed Star Wars and increased military spending.

1984

7.3%

$4,040.7

$31,519

 

1985

4.2%

$4,346.7

$32,531

 

1986

3.5%

$4,590.1

$33,353

Reagan cut taxes. Chernobyl nuclear accident.

1987

3.5%

$4,870.2

$34,114

Black Monday stock market crash. Inflation at 4.4%.

1988

4.2%

$5,252.6

$35,196

Fed raised rate to 9.75% to combat 4.4% inflation.

1989

3.7%

$5,657.7

$36,111

Bush 41 became President. Exxon Valdez oil spill. Invasion of Panama. 1989 Savings and Loan Crisis caused recession. Berlin Wall fell. Fed lowered rate to 8.25% to fight recession, even though inflation was still 4.6%.

1990

1.9%

$5,979.6

$36,378

Iraq invaded Kuwait. Dow fell 18% in 3 months. Inflation rose to 6.1%.

1991

-0.1%

$6,174.0

$35,812

Desert Storm. 1991 recession. Breakup of Soviet Union. Fed lowered rate to 4%.

1992

3.6%

$6,539.3

$36,537

Fed lowered rate to 3%.

1993

2.7%

$6,878.7

$37,094

Clinton became President. NAFTA and European Unionsigned into law. World Trade Center bombed.

1994

4.0%

$7,308.7

$38,139

 

1995

2.7%

$7,664.0

$38,640

Fed raised rate to 6%. Inflation a moderate 2.5%.

1996

3.8%

$8,100.2

$39,623

Inflation at 3.3%.

1997

4.5%

$8,608.5

$40,897

Thailand cut its dollar peg. Speculators sold all Asian currencies.

1998

4.4%

$9,089.1

$42,183

Russia debt default. Long Term Capital Managementhedge fund nearly collapsed. Fed lowered rate to 4.75%.

1999

4.8%

$9,665.7

$43,716

Y2K scare. Budget surplus. Euro created. Glass-Steagallrepealed. Fed raised rate to 5.5%.

2000

4.1%

$10,289.7

$45,026

Tech bubble burst. Fed raised rate to 6.5% to fight 3.4% inflation.

2001

1.0%

$10,625.3

$45,046

Bush 43 became President. Recession worsened by 9/11 attacks and War on Terror, but helped by Bush tax cuts. Fed started lowering rates.

2002

1.8%

$10,980.2

$45,418

Bush calls for regime change in Iraq, creates Homeland Security.

2003

2.8%

$11,512.2

$46,137

Unemployment at 6%. Fed lowered rate to 1%. Iraq War began.

2004

3.8%

$12,277.0

$47,307

Fed started raising rates.

2005

3.4%

$13,095.4

$48,312

Hurricane Katrina cost $250 billion in damage.

2006

2.7%

$13,857.9

$49,130

Fed funds rate raised to 6.75%. Swine flu epidemic.

2007

1.8%

$14,480.3

$49,571

Dow reached new high of 14,164.43. Inflation at 4.1%. Fed dropped rate 3 times, to 4.25%, to ease banking liquidity crisis. LIBOR rose to 5.6%.

2008

-0.3%

$14,720.3

$48,951

Stock market crash of 2008 led to global financial crisisand $350 billion spent on bank bailout bill. Fed lowered rate 7 times to 0%. See 2008 GDP by quarter.

2009

-2.8%

$14,417.9

$47,041

Obama became President. Dow dropped to 6,594.44.Obama Stimulus Act spent $400 billion, reversed downward spiral. See 2009 GDP by quarter.

2010

2.5%

$14,958.3

$47,772

BP oil spill. Bush tax cuts extendedObamacare andDodd-Frank passed. See 2010 GDP by quarter.

2011

1.8%

$15,533.8

$48,282

Japan earthquake and Mississippi River floods. 10-year Treasury yield hit 200-year low. Iraq War ended.

2012

2.8%

$16,244.6

$49,800

Presidential campaign and fiscal cliff created business uncertainty. Superstorm Sandy hit East Coast. See U.S. Economy 2012




美国的GDP在1950年达到最高!目前是下降的趋势!


如果以GDP来算,中国目前大约是美国1998年的水平
,但是中国的发展速度是非常快的,2020年中国就有可能超过美国重新夺回世界第一,但是要想恢复到唐朝(甚至

宋朝的水平那就要相当长的时间了! 我们一定要好好看历史,可以不知道未来,但是不可以不了解历史!

如果我们没有100年的动乱,那世界就不是如今的结果了,当然世界没有如果,但是我们要吸取教训,富国必须强军,如果如今的俄罗斯没有强大的军事实力,

那就不是今天的俄罗斯了,即使俄罗斯的GDP只有美国的1/10,但是美国依然不敢动它,这就是恐怖平衡!加快发展,中国梦一定可以实现!


作者:大卫

 

 

 

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